2010 World Cup Final Preview: Why Spain Will Beat the Netherlands

It's finally here. The World Cup final. Netherlands v. Spain. Two countries, one winner. Matt in the previous post gave the Dutch preview and explained why the Neurotic Oranje will win. Here is why Spain will win:

Jersey:

Here's the best part about Spain's jersey, this Cup and even in the past, it's a legitimately good looking shirt that almost doesn't look like a jersey. Sure it has the number and the crest. But they are never wild or hideous looking jerseys. It's a solid blue or red with small, limited and necessary symbols and stripes. A very classic and simple look. If it didn't have the number and you saw it on a rack at the store, you would actually buy it because it's a great looking shirt.

Team Legacy: This one is sort of difficult for Spain. What legacy? There is no legacy. Well, up until 2008 it was a legacy of losing and under performing. For a team with such a rich soccer history, it's amazing that before this year they had never made the World Cup semifinal, let alone final. The Oranje have at least been to the final twice, even if they did lose. This would be more concerning were Spain not the reigning Euro champions. So they have at least been in a big game final before, and won. But this is the World Cup. Big boy soccer. Hopefully the losing demons of the past don't come back to haunt them on Sunday. Either way, some sort of legacy will be written.

Music:

We have tied music into most all our World Cup posts for some reason. So of course it will be a factor in the final (?). Let's be honest, unless you have lived in Spain, you probably don't know their music. If you have lived there, you know that most of the stuff they listen to is Euro Disco Trash a.k.a. Trance or House music. Yet the best Trance DJ's are Dutch. No good. Unless you are in the club in Ibiza in which case it's great.

Spain does have musicians. Alejandro Sanz, Monica Naranjo, Radio Futura etc. Those are decent names, but none of them really made a huge impact in the US. At least not yet. Arguably one of Spain's biggest rock groups, La Oreja de Van Gogh, is clearly inspired by a Dutch artist. Also not good.

So we are left with Paco de Lucia and the Iglesias father and son duo. Enrique is/was big. He's fading though. I guess you can't beat Paco on the guitar. You can't beat it technically, but he's not exactly getting you pumped up or your blood flowing - unless you are engaged in other activities while listening to his sweet serenades. Maybe I'm missing someone. If not, it's not the most impressive list.

Let's hope that if Spain wins, we get a better song than this one that Enrique did for the Euro 2008 Cup. I love that they performed it right before the final. So fittingly Euro.



Bad Karma:

A couple of things:

1. No team that has ever lost the first game of the World Cup has then gone on to win it. Spain of course lost 1-0 to Switzerland in their first game.

2. This Spain team is dominated by a Barcelona midfield as the controlling midfielders all play for Barcelona. Thus, they sometimes tend to play a Barcelona style. Barcelona seemed invincible in the Champions League last year until Inter Milan came in and shut down their midfield. The leader of that Inter squad: Wesley Sneijder. The same man that has been an integral part of this Netherlands team. Not good. They know how to beat Spain. Well, at least the Barcelona version of Spain National Team.

Good Karma:

Paul the octopus has chosen Spain! Don't pretend like this isn't a big deal. He's a German octopus that correctly picked the winner for all of Germany's games. It really wasn't that big of a deal before the semifinal match because he had picked Germany in all the games. A German octopus picking Germany to win. Typical. But to pick Germany in all the previous games and then go with Spain before the semifinal shows that this octopus knows his soccer. He's not your typical octopus that will always pick his favorite team or side with his countrymen. No way, he picks winners. He's a winner.

And now he is picking Spain again! As mentioned in the article, Carlos Marchena, Spanish defender is trying to downplay it all and said, "It's only an octopus." Look Marchena, there is no room for negative players on the team. It's that type of disbelief that keeps you on the bench. Of course, he may have been just trying to keep his head in the game and not get too carried away. In which case, I suppose his answer is fine. Seriously though, at this point, just give the Cup to Spain. Why even bother playing? The psychic cephalopod mollusk has spoken.

Starting 11:

Goalkeeper: Iker Casillas - He's solid. Maybe not the best in the world, but definitely in the conversation. He's good for a couple of brilliant saves a game.

Defense: Carles Puyol, Gerard Pique, Sergio Ramos and Joan Capdevilla.

Interesting that it's Carles not Carlos and Joan not Juan ("It's not Ryan it's Ryne"). It's a solid line. Puyol was the hero in the last game. Ramos does like to play forward more than most defenders. It didn't pose a problem against the counterattacking Germans, so hopefully it doesn't cause problems with the dutch. That is really the only weakness here though.

Midfield: Sergio Busquets, Xabi Alonso and Xavi.

Love the Xabi and Xavi. Nice to get the Basque representation on the team from Alonso. All three have been great. I have been critical of Xavi because he seems to play without urgency sometimes and prefers to pass and control and not attack. But it worked brilliantly against Germany.

Attacking midfield: Pedro - He started for the semifinal game. Not sure if he will start in the final. I still don't forgive him for this move.

Iniesta - He has been great. I was critical of him after the first game and he didn't start the second game. But since coming back he has been attacking a lot more and making great runs. He definitely helps Xavi move the ball forward and attack more.

Cesc Fabregas - Not a starter, but usually comes off the bench. A great spark and excellent player. He would start on any other team in the world. Shows you how strong the midfield is.

The midfield as a whole has been great. Spain has to have the advantage. The midfield can control the game better than any other team in the world. So long as they have their rhythm, they should be fine.

Striker

Fernando Torres - Probably won't start, but will likely come in off the bench. He's been sort of out of form, but I think he should start as I think he has the greater potential to change the game than any other bench player.

and of course:

David Villa - El guaje. Really, the starting 11 are the only thing that matters on this list. If they are clicking and playing like they did against Germany, they will win. They know it, the Netherlands players know it, everyone knows it.

But Villa is a main reason Spain is untouchable when playing at their best. He's been incredible throughout the tournament. If Spain wins he is without question the MVP of the tournament. We heralded him well before he was becoming a household name. Not that it matters. It's just important that he is finally getting his due. It's the biggest stage in the world and instead of shrinking under the pressure he is rising to the occasion to become a national hero. A true clutch performer. 5 goals in 6 games. Here's to hoping he makes it 7 in 7.

Prediction: The Oranje are neurotic and as they have demonstrated, they have the talent to beat any team in the tournament. Spain's biggest enemy is being overly confident and coming out sluggish like they did against Paraguay or Switzerland. Makes me nervous thinking about it. I'm hoping they aren't that foolish and that they rise to the occasion like they did against Germany and are too much for the Dutch, and that they prove they have the best collective talent and are the best team in the world.

Villa finds the goal early and Torres finally pokes one in as well. Give the Dutch some credit though, Robben will also find the back of the net. Unfortunately, it's not enough: Spain 2 - Netherlands 1.

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2010 World Cup Final Preview: Why Netherlands will beat Spain on Sunday

Jersey
The bright Orange jersey is an international icon (the color was adopted as tribute to the Dutch Royal family, the House of Orange - Nassau).  It is symbol of the best kind of soccer and a country that embraces the best aspects of the game.  The entire nation is dressed in Oranje when the national team plays.  Unlike Spain, Holland is united behind this team and it truly represents all of the people.  The Orange Jersey is the symbol of the nation.



Team Legacy

Total Football, Johann Cruyff, Clockwork Orange.  This is their legacy.  Two previous trips to the Final in 1974 and 1978 led to bitter defeats against the home teams, Germany and Argentina.  Their only major championship came in 1988 at the European Championships.  It is a legacy of brilliant soccer without the trophies.  They also have a legacy of petty spats and dressing room friction.  As for Johann Cruyff, he is soccer royalty.  He was a genius on the field and introduced Barcelona to the fluid "pass and move" style of play, the style that the Spanish National Team now uses.  Which is why Cruyff has stated that a Spanish victory would still bring him great joy.  In reality, this game is Holland 1974 versus Holland 2010.  Win-Win.
 

Music

Armin Van Buuren - The best DJ in the world is Dutch and he is a Trance specialist.  Although I can't prove it, the Dutch team has Trance playing constantly in their locker room. 


Good Karma

1.  Undefeated in 25 straight matches - Their last loss was September 6, 2008. 
2.  Best soccer nation to never win the World Cup.  They're due.
3.  Manager without an ego.  Team without an ego.  Where was the Dutch drama this year?  Where was the bickering between teammates?  Where was the coup against the manager?  The Dutch are renowned for their independent spirit and inability to coalesce into a team.  Not this year.  The only thing resembling a spat was when Robin van Persie argued with the manager, Bert van Marwijk, when substituted during the Round of 16 victory over Slovakia.  After the game, van Marjwick settled the matter and that was the last that we heard.   
4.  The players have ignored the critics.  The Dutch live in the 1970s when it comes to soccer.  Everyone is measured against the Clockwork Orange team that invented Total Football.  They also lacked belief that they could really win it.  This is the only team to have won every game in this tournament.  They know they can win.
5.  Beating Brazil.  When you take down the favorite, you have a major psychological advantage. 
6.  Howard Webb is the referee for the final.  Webb was also the referee in Spain's loss to Switzerland.  The Spanish press is not happy about it and that will also seep over to the players, chipping away at their fragile egos.


Bad Karma

1. Undefeated in 25 straight matches - Their last loss was September 6, 2008.  That's a remarkable run and it has to end sometime. 
2.  Arjen Robben's diving.  Divers always end up costing their team at some point.  They either gain a reputation and the referee starts swallowing his whistle (think Cristiano Ronaldo), or their playacting gets them a yellow card.  No matter what, they lose respect.  
3.  The coaching staff's matching suits.  There's cheesy and then there's Frank de Boer and Bert van Marwijk:

 4.  Spain woke up after the Switzerland loss and got another wake up call against Paraguay (I'm not sure they deserved to win that game).  Spain is controlling the flow of the game.  The ball sticks to their feet and opposing teams are simply worn out from chasing the ball and have trouble counterattacking.
5.  Paul the Psychic Octopus predicted a Spain victory.  This is very bad news.  This octopus has a perfect record thus far in World Cup predictions.
 
Starting 11

Maarten Stekelenberg - The goalkeeper has been excellent.  He saved the team against Brazil  (Kaka's amazing shot) and has done very well.

Defense:  Gregory van der Wiehl, John Heitinga, Joris Mathijsen, Giovanni van Bronkhorst - This is the solid base of the team. 

Midfield:  Nigel de Jong  - Excellent tackler.  His job is to protect the back and get the ball to the playmakers.

Mark van Bommel - A bruiser and the most likely to earn a red card despite the fact that he only has one yellow the entire tournament.

Wesley Sneijder - 5 goals this tournament.  He has been outstanding.

Arjen Robben - He's very quick, dives too much, and has an incredible shot.  He is the best candidate to pin back the Spanish defense.

Dirk Kuyt - Kuyt is a workhorse.  He is the glue that makes this team stick because he'll do anything asked of him for the team.  Move to the left to make room for Van Persie?  No problem.  Play more defense to free up space for Sneijder?  Sign him up.  Unsung hero of the Dutch team.

Striker

Robin van Persie - van Persie is an excellent striker who has not seen enough of the ball this tournament, but he still requires teams to pay attention to him.  His role has become similar to Torres' role for Spain.  Smart movement off the ball by van Persie creates chances for the other players on this team. Still, I'd really like to see him score in the final.

Prediction:  Netherlands 2 - 1 Spain 

Arjen Robben will give Capdevila fits and Ramos will be stymied by Kuyt.  Spain will dominate the center of the midfield but end up on the ground with hard fouls from Van Bommel and de Jong.  Netherlands will score first on a set piece.  Spain won't deal well with the adversity and get hit for a second on the counterattack.  Finally, Spain scores a consolation goal at the end.  

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Dutch Disrupt Brazil and the Beautiful Game

I know I predicted it yesterday, but even I was still a little surprised to see Brazil go down. I knew it was possible, but didn't really think it would happen. In order for it to happen the Netherlands needed somewhat of a perfect game; which involved disrupting the beautiful game.

Brazil came out strong. They looked really good. They are so fun to watch sometimes. They really do play beautiful music together. It's like you are watching a samba or some sort of performance. They are so fluid and the ball moves effortlessly throughout the team and across the field. When they are all in tune they are scary good and so fun to watch. They started out in perfect pitch and just dominated the game. Everything quickly came together in the 10th minute when a perfect pass was made to Robinho who touched it into the goal on his first touch (video below). A beautiful finish to a beautiful start.

Unlike an Italy or even Spain though, Brazil isn't content with just one goal. The music continues and they continued to pound the Netherlands for the rest of the half. I thought the Dutch were somewhat lucky to get out of the half only down 1-0. It's not that Brazil had many great opportunities, but the Netherlands didn't really have any chances and Brazil was playing their style and had complete control of the game. That is until the Dutch disrupted the beautiful game.

I don't know if disrupting Brazil was Netherlands' game plan exactly, but its what they did and it worked perfectly. The game became choppy. Lots of fouls. Lots of flopping and falling by Robben and doing all sorts of things to get under Brazil's skin. They made it difficult for Brazil to keep their rhythm and keep playing their music.

By the way, the play of the game easily was the awesome corner kick "fake" the Dutch tried to pull. One player goes over to take the corner and puts the ball in the little semi-circle by the corner. Then, he motions to another player to come and take the kick. But before leaving the corner, he taps the ball out of the semi-circle so that the ball is now in play. Ideally the other team doesn't notice what the first player did and when the other player gets to the ball, he just starts dribbling towards the goal. It's straight out of a AYSO handbook. It's like in Little League baseball when the players have a meeting at the mound and they give the ball to the first baseman and he tries to hide it and go back to his base and hope that the guy on first will lead off so he can tag him out. Only imagine the Yankees trying that move in the World Series. Brazil of course noticed Netherlands' poor attempt at trickery and foiled the plan. You can see it in the video below. Just awesome.

Anyways, despite the failed tricks, the Dutch were actually doing a good job at disrupting the flow of the game. But they needed a gift. And they got it from an own goal from Brazil. A complete fluke and unfortunate goal, but a gift nonetheless. At that point, the Dutch were in Brazil's heads and Brazil couldn't keep their cool. Bad passes, not much chemistry and lack of music together. Before you knew it, Brazil was flopping and whining at the ref for calls just like the Dutch. Brazil isn't traditionally a team to do that, well apart from Robinho. But all of the players were aggravated. The Dutch had completely frustrated them. Suddenly, amidst all the frustration, the Dutch scored another goal. Practically the knock out blow. Instead of getting up though, Brazil lost their cool even more and lost a man to a red card for a cheap foul that was clearly the result of frustration. And that was it, Brazil was done. The coolest and smoothest team in the Cup had completely lost their cool.

I said yesterday that if these teams played 10 times I would pick Brazil to win 7 of them. I still stick by that. Brazil is the better team and if they don't give the Netherlands the free goal and if they keep their cool, they win most every time. But that's the beauty of the World Cup. It's the biggest stage and anything can happen. The pressure is greater, the stakes are higher, it's a completely different game. The Dutch disrupted the beautiful game and as a result move on. I'd feel bad for Brazil except that we all know they will win it in four years when they host the tournament. There is no way I will pick against them in 2014.

Brazil's goal:



The awesome failed corner kick trick:



Holland second goal:

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Quarterfinals Preview

Four games in the next two days, 2 1/2 exciting ones, let's preview them:

Friday:

I'm starting both days with the afternoon games since they aren't quite as exciting.

Uruguay v. Ghana

Musical Match-up: Beck v. Poison. Interesting. Frankly, I'm partial to Beck, especially when he's at the top of his game. He's a musical genius. But he has been known to mail it in at times. Poison is crazy and always on the verge of doing something unpredictable - like OD'ing or dying. But I think the edge has to go to Beck as far as musical ability. Poison probably puts on a better show though. Although can you beat the Beck dancer? I don't think you can. Edge: Beck/Uruguay.



Soccer Match-up: Another tough one. Both decent teams, both likely to be bounced next round by the winner of the Brazil/Netherlands game. Uruguay has looked like the more complete team. Just a solid team that has been able to get the victories. But they are solidly average. A bright spot for them is at forward with Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez. It's a solid one-two punch, but nothing that can't be beaten. Ghana on the other hand is practically unpredictable. One thing is for sure, they are fast and strong. But pretty erratic. Edge: Uruguay.

Summer movie comparison: The A-Team. Did you know the tagline is, "there is no Plan B"? Come on now. You have to do better than that. Regardless, I'm sure it's actually a good and entertaining movie. I'd like to see it. I'll probably see it. Will my life be over if I don't see it? Of course not, just like my life won't really change much by seeing it. Much like this game because the winner will likely lose in the next round to the Brazil/Netherlands winner.

Prediction: The US could have beaten Ghana with a better starting lineup and if they would have stuck to their game plan of controlling the ball and not playing the long ball so much. I think Uruguay will have a game plan and outlast Ghana by the end.


Brazil v. Netherlands:

Musical Match-up: The Beatles v. Radiohead. Tough choice. If you are a casual music fan and you saw both those bands you would probably go with The Beatles; much like if you were a casual soccer fan you would probably go with Brazil. Neither decision would be bad, even if you were a intense soccer or music fan. But if you know music, or know Radiohead, you know that there is a definite brilliance to Radiohead. Is it always there? Well, depends on how much you worship Thom Yorke. Most music fans respect Radiohead, but probably don't love everything that they produce. Whereas, you can't really go wrong with any Beatles songs. Edge: Beatles/Brazil.

Here is a really the only Beatles v. Radiohead mashup I could find. I'm sure there are others.

Soccer Match-up: This is a very efficient Brazil team. There is a subtle dominance about them. They aren't killing teams or running up the score, but they are somewhat quietly getting the job done. Even in close games they always look like they have things under control. I thought Chile would give them more of a challenge, but they calmly and casually weathered Chile and very efficiently and methodically moved on. Somewhat scary how quietly good they appear.

Netherlands was also quietly moving through the group stages. They just made headlines because of an argument with Robin Van Persie and the Dutch coach. Not the best thing to happen before a game against Brazil. Also not too surprising though. There are a ton of superstars and big personalities on the Netherlands team. It was bound to happen. Regardless, its no French implosion and I don't think it will really impact the on-field play. Edge: Brazil.

Summer Movie Comparison: Inception. Still not sure what this movie is about. Dreams? Buildings folding up like paper? Not sure what's going on here, but I know I'll be seeing it. It's directed by Christopher Nolan. After the Batman series I'll pretty much see anything that this guy does. It's Brazil and Netherlands. Both of these teams have a historic track record. One complete with trophies and championships, and the other full of "almosts" and "should have wons." There is no way of predicting what is going to happen in this game. You aren't sure what is going to happen and you don't want to miss it.

Prediction: You can't go wrong by picking Brazil here, but I'm not going to. If the teams played 10 times I think Brazil would win at least 7 of them. Law of averages says Brazil, my gut says Netherlands (but my gut is also telling me I'm hungry...)



Saturday:

Spain v. Paraguay

Musical Match-up: Led Zeppelin v. Los Fabulosos Cadillacs. Hmm. Interesting. Not really sure how to compare this here. There was a time and place for the Cadillacs. Unfortunately, that was in the late 90's as they are sort of a ska/rock compilation band. Not that the Cadillacs aren't good. They are fine. Zeppelin, well, they are just better. End of discussion and debate - if there ever was one. Edge: Zeppelin/Spain.

Surprisingly, I couldn't find a mash up for these two groups. So here is a fantastic Zeppelin v. The Beastie Boys Mash-up. Well worth the listen.

Soccer Match-up: Let's give some credit where credit is due: This came from Matt who wrote the Fastbreak preview on Paraguay: "Paraguay has foiled more than a few teams over the years and has a solid history in the World Cup. They will advance and could easily win this group. They’ll be overlooked by the casual fan but the diehard will know them." Impressive. And Paraguay has been legit. But it will all likely end with this game. This game very well could be close, but it really shouldn't. Spain is just an all around better team and has better players than Paraguay. That doesn't mean Paraguay can't pull off an upset. Spain isn't unbeatable. They came out firing after the Switzerland loss and have been pulling back the reigns a bit in the last couple of games. If they come out explosive and looking to attack, Paraguay won't win. If they play their control midfield and look for the perfect play, then Paraguay has a legitimate chance. Edge: Spain.

Summer Movie Comparison: Knight and Day. For a couple reasons: Lot of hype for this movie just like there was a lot of hype for Spain before the Cup. So much hype that no movie, or team (especially not Spain with their poor National Team track record) could live up to it. It also works for this game because Knight and Day is surely fun and has lots of action and is entertaining, but leaves you a little empty, like it's missing something, like a plot. There is a good chance this game could leave you feeling empty, like there wasn't a worthy opponent.

Prediction: Everything points to Spain.



Argentina v. Germany

Musical Match-up: Nirvana v. Coldplay. Man. What a tough choice. Both bands are great. Both have also been overplayed almost as much as a Knight and Day movie trailer or K-Ci and JoJo at a high school dance. Nirvana ruled the 90s, Coldplay dominated the 2000s. Both have a landmark album: Nirvana - Nevermind, Coldplay - A Rush of Blood to the Head. And both also have other great albums, that pretty much sound and revolve around the landmark album. Frankly, it's a "mood" thing. You can be totally in the mood for one of the bands, but also be completely sick of the same band a couple days later. Edge: Tie.

No mashups. Sorry. Well, besides this one. Here is an entertaining Nirvana mashup. And below is a pretty good Coldplay one as well.



Soccer Match-up: This game is so awesome. First of all, both of these teams hate each other. Germany knocked Argentina out of the 2006 World Cup. Argentina beat Germany in the 1986 World Cup final and then Germany came back and beat Argentina in the 1990 final. Just lots of good history and bad blood. The fighting words have been going back and forth before this match as well. It's pretty great.

But on top of that, both teams are really good. Germany was hard to read in the group stage because of their varied results. But then they came out and thumped England. There was a controversial call, but Germany was the better team. Argentina on the other hand has been consistently good. They have a solid team with an amazing offense. Messi, Tevez and Higuain are playing so well. But Germany also has very efficient strikers and a young up and coming outside midfielder in Mesut Ozil. He's been a stand out player in the Cup. Some (other Germans) are even saying he's playing better than Messi. I don't necessarily agree with that, but he is playing really well. Edge: Argentina. Barely.

Summer Movie Comparison: Toy Story 3. This game is just another chapter in a fantastic story. Toy Story 3 has to be the best movie of the summer thus far. This Argentina v. Germany game could be the best of the Cup. Granted, there could be other good games, but as mentioned, there is history with these teams. Familiar players and characters. Not to mention that both of these teams are world class. You are missing out in life if you don't go see Toy Story 3. You are missing out on the World Cup if you skip this game.

Prediction: It's hard. Germany has the size and seems to be able to score against anyone. But the Argentine trio up top of Messi, Tevez and Higuain seems to be too much for any team. I see Messi dribbling and creating too much and Teven and Higuain finding the back of the net more than the Germans.

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